Feb 13, 2026: VIX Holds Near 21 After Tech Slide

Volatility did not so much retreat on Friday as it caught its breath. After Thursday’s tech-led selloff sent traders scrambling for protection, the Cboe Volatility Index stayed pinned near the 21 handle even as cooler inflation data pulled Treasury yields down and steadied stocks intraday.

Table of Contents

Outline (Why Vol Products Moved)

Shock-and-hold pattern: VIX jumped on Thursday’s broad selloff, then held elevated levels Friday as investors kept hedges on.
Tech pressure mattered more than the macro “relief”: Softer CPI helped rates and sentiment, but it did not fully unwind the week’s de-risking.
Vol-of-vol rose too: VVIX climbed alongside VIX, a sign traders were paying up for convexity in VIX options.
Cross-asset mood: Gold gravitated back toward $5,000, while crude steadied in the low-to-mid $60s, suggesting caution without a new shock.
Next catalysts: A holiday-thinned week opens into Retail Sales, FOMC minutes, GDP-related releases, and PMI reads that can reprice growth and policy expectations.

Looking Back (What Already Happened)

VIX surged on Thursday’s selloff, then stayed sticky Friday.
VIX closed at 20.82 on Feb. 12, up 17.96% on the day, after a third straight decline in equities and a notable tech downdraft. On Feb. 13, VIX closed at 20.96, a reminder that implied volatility can linger even when the tape stops bleeding. Traders often keep protection in place when the market’s internal tone, breadth, volume, and leadership, has been sending warning signals.
VVIX confirmed that “volatility of volatility” was rising.
VVIX, which tracks implied volatility of VIX options, closed at 110.95 on Feb. 12, up 8.61% (from 102.15 on Feb. 11). That combination, VIX up and VVIX up, tends to show investors are not only buying equity hedges, they are also seeking more leverage to volatility itself.
Equities: a tech-led air pocket set the tone for hedging demand.
On Feb. 12, major indexes fell sharply, with the Dow ending around 49,451, the S&P 500 at 6,832.76, and the Nasdaq Composite at 22,597.15. Friday brought a stabilization attempt intraday, with the S&P 500 trading back toward the 6,875 area as inflation data supported rate-cut expectations.
Bonds rallied on cooler inflation, improving the macro backdrop.
January CPI data helped push yields lower, with the 10-year Treasury around 4.06% (down about 4.8 bps) and the 2-year around 3.41% (down about 5.6 bps). Lower yields can calm equity volatility by easing financial conditions, but this week it functioned more as a cushion than a cure.
Commodities: gold near $5,000 signaled caution, oil steadied.
Gold hovered around $5,000/oz on Feb. 13 after dipping below that level during the prior session’s risk-off wave. Crude oil was comparatively contained, with WTI around $62.82 and Brent around $67.63 in published reports, reinforcing the idea that the week’s volatility impulse came primarily from equities and positioning, not an energy shock.
Geopolitics stayed in the background, but it did not disappear.
Developments tied to the Russia-Ukraine war, including reports of strikes and additional Western support, contributed to a steady hum of headline risk. In a market already sensitive to abrupt narrative shifts, that kind of backdrop can keep implied volatility from fully relaxing.

Sources (Looking Back)

Looking Forward (What Could Move Volatility Next)

Holiday liquidity and fragile confidence.
Markets are closed Monday for Presidents’ Day, and the first full session back can exaggerate moves when positioning is still being rebuilt. Thin liquidity can make volatility products feel “jumpy” even on modest headlines.
Retail Sales and the consumer-growth narrative.
Retail Sales on Tuesday can reset expectations for the growth engine of the US economy. Strong spending can lift yields and revive rate fears, while a weak print can stoke recession talk. Either way, it is the sort of release that feeds directly into index hedging demand.
FOMC minutes: rate-cut odds meet the fine print.
Also Tuesday, the Fed minutes can clarify how comfortable policymakers are with disinflation, and how they weigh financial conditions after an equity drawdown. If the minutes read more cautious than the market’s rate-cut pricing, implied volatility can reprice quickly.
GDP-related data, PCE, and PMIs later in the week.
Thursday’s cluster, including GDP-related releases, PCE inflation details, and preliminary PMI readings, can swing both the “soft landing” narrative and the timing of policy easing. VIX tends to respond less to the headline and more to the gap between expectations and reality.
The next formal Fed waypoint is already visible.
The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for March 17 to 18. With the market still digesting a fast rotation out of leadership tech, volatility can remain elevated as investors decide whether the recent drawdown was a reset, or the start of something more durable.
Geopolitical risk remains a wild card.
Ongoing developments in Eastern Europe can keep a background bid under hedges, particularly if they spill into energy supply expectations, cyber risk, or broader diplomatic escalation.

Tony

I have been trading options since 2010 and have been testing and experimenting with various trading styles. Fundamental Analysis based, Technical Analysis based, Trend Following, Day Trading, Swing Trading, etc.

My primary option trading strategies incorporate volatility and I am constantly experimenting with various trading strategies to improve my PNL.

I hold two Master’s degrees (MSc and MBA) with career experience as a cancer research scientist and a digital marketer.