📈 Volatility Recap: July 14–18, 2025 & The July 16th Spike Explained

Looking Back: Market Tone & Volatility

• Equities at Highs, Volatility Muted: S&P 500 and Nasdaq set new records, powered by strong Q2 earnings (Johnson & Johnson, Delta, tech) and tame inflation data (CPI, PPI). VIX hovered 16.5–17.4, reflecting moderate caution but no panic. (VIX Data)
• Macro & Policy: Retail sales, jobless claims, and housing data all beat expectations. President Trump’s tariff threats (30%+ on EU/Mexico, 100% on Russia’s partners) injected uncertainty, but markets largely viewed them as negotiating tactics. (Tariff Recap)
• Earnings Season: Most companies beat expectations, with Big Tech and AI optimism offsetting macro worries. Some sector misses (e.g., Abbott Labs) were quickly defended by analysts. (Earnings Recap)
• Crypto & Global: Bitcoin hit new highs ($122,838), and international stocks outperformed, with AI and stimulus themes driving sentiment. (Global/AI)

July 16th Volatility Spike: What Really Happened?

• Headline Shock: Midday, markets were rattled by breaking news that President Trump was considering firing Fed Chair Powell. This unexpected political risk triggered a sharp, but short-lived, selloff as traders scrambled to reprice risk and hedge against destabilizing policy changes. (Live Updates)
• Amplifying Factors: The market was in a “coiled spring” state—volatility had been compressed for days, so any shock produced an outsized move. Bond yields surged, the dollar weakened, and the VIX jumped as traders rushed for protection.
• Resolution: President Trump later denied the firing rumors, helping markets recover and volatility to ease by the close. The VIX closed at 17.16, a modest uptick, but not a panic spike. (VIX Data)
• Volatility Products: UVXY and VXX saw high trading volume but no dramatic price spike, reflecting active hedging but not a major volatility event. (UVXY Data)

Takeaway for Traders

• The July 16th spike was a textbook example of how “headline risk” can break a period of surface calm, especially when volatility is already compressed.
• Even in a strong earnings season, political and policy shocks can quickly change the market mood.
• For those trading volatility products (VIX, VXX, UVXY), this week was a reminder that cheap hedges can pay off fast when the unexpected hits.

Key Sources

• St. Louis Fed VIX Data
• Yahoo Finance Live Updates
• UVXY Data
• Tariff Recap
• Earnings Recap
• Global/AI

• Author
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Tony

I have been trading options since 2010 and have been testing and experimenting with various trading styles. Fundamental Analysis based, Technical Analysis based, Trend Following, Day Trading, Swing Trading, etc.

My primary option trading strategies incorporate volatility and I am constantly experimenting with various trading strategies to improve my PNL.

I hold two Master’s degrees (MSc and MBA) with career experience as a cancer research scientist and a digital marketer.

Latest posts by Tony (see all)

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