US Stock Market Volatility Recap & Outlook: June 30, 2025

Looking Back: Calm, But Cracks Show

• Volatility Faded:
  The VIX dropped to 17.19 by June 30, a dramatic retreat from its April panic highs above 60. This shows traders are expecting smoother sailing and less need for costly portfolio protection, at least for now.
  VIX Data
• Mixed Jobs Data:
  Official nonfarm payrolls jumped by 147,000 and unemployment fell to 4.1%. Great headlines on the surface. But the ADP report showed contraction in private jobs, pointing to a split picture that could signal hidden cracks in the broader labor market—the big reason why bulls and bears both have ammo right now.
  Jobs Report Recap
• Macro & Policy:
  The White House extended its “reciprocal” tariff deadline to August 1, soothing some nerves. But this means the risk of a tariff-related shock is still lurking, and it’s keeping many traders on their toes.
  Jim Cramer’s Top 10
• Skepticism Returns:
  Despite the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting new highs, some strategists (like at Stifel) are openly calling for a 12% pullback in the second half. Reasons include slower GDP, stubborn inflation, and fear that profit growth could falter. Not everyone is convinced the rally is on stable ground.
  Stifel S&P 500 call
• Beyond Big Tech:
  For most of 2025, big tech led the gains, but fund managers are now broadening out—favoring plays in industrials, energy, infrastructure and real assets. Even when the overall trend is up, what works beneath the surface can change fast. Diversification Playbook
• Volatility ETFs:
  UVXY and VXX (which spike when volatility jumps) have drifted back toward lows—UVXY now near $18.44—after their wild spring spike. This means traders aren’t rushing to hedge, but these funds could roar back on any fresh market scare. Volatility ETF Trends

• Author
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Tony

I have been trading options since 2010 and have been testing and experimenting with various trading styles. Fundamental Analysis based, Technical Analysis based, Trend Following, Day Trading, Swing Trading, etc.

My primary option trading strategies incorporate volatility and I am constantly experimenting with various trading strategies to improve my PNL.

I hold two Master’s degrees (MSc and MBA) with career experience as a cancer research scientist and a digital marketer.

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